Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Year : 2, Issue: 5
The 2024 US presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could be determined by the vote from America’s Muslim population, according to the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the largest Muslim advocacy group in the US.
“We estimate there are about three and a half million registered Muslim voters nationwide,” said Hussam Ayloush, CEO of the California chapter of CAIR.
While CAIR does not endorse candidates because it is a nonprofit organization, Ayloush told Anadolu that the Muslim vote might make the difference in whether publican nominee, or Harris, the Democratic nominee, wins the Nov. 5 election, especially in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Gaza stance propels Green Party’s Stein in polls
CAIR conducted a survey at the end of August that targeted 40,000 registered Muslim voters in the six swing states. Ayloush said that Muslim voters tended to lean Democratic, so it is not surprising that Harris leads Trump by a significant margin: 29.4% to 11.2%.
However, it is the person who is in second place that stands out. Green Party candidate Jill Stein trails Harris by a very small margin at 29.1%.
“Trump is much more pro-Israel. Trump has made it clear about his anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim policies and views, but the goal is obviously to kind of sway the voters there that, ‘Hey, Kamala Harris is not your friend,’” he said, adding Harris has been sitting on the fence, both sympathizing with the Palestinians yet remaining silent on condemning Israel for its continuing air strikes in Gaza.
“Oftentimes, voting is about choosing the lesser of two evils,” Ayloush continued. “Many Muslim voters ask me how can one vote when you can’t tell who is actually the lesser of two evils? The one who is enabling a current genocide, or the one who’s saying, ‘If I’m president, I will continue with the genocide?’ These are real questions that people are debating within the Muslim community.”
Stein actually leads Harris in three of the six swing states that CAIR surveyed: Arizona (35% to 29%), Wisconsin (44% to 39%), and most notably, Michigan (40% to 12%).
Two key swing states: Michigan and Pennsylvania
“Michigan is important,” said Bob Stein, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston who specializes in voting and elections.
“On the presidential level, the most impactful outcome will be in Michigan, Stein told Anadolu. “Evidence of that was the Democratic primary in Michigan, where upwards of 200,000 votes were cast.” “Polling in Michigan now shows Harris up anywhere between three and five points,” said Stein. “Two hundred thousand votes in the state of Michigan is not inconsequential. Michigan went for Biden by about 100,000, 114,000 votes in 2020, so if all 200,000 Arab American Muslim surname voters said that the war in Gaza and America’s policy towards Israel is intolerable.”
While Prof. Stein believes the war in Gaza is an important issue for Muslim voters, he added that other issues need to be factored into their decision, including the economy, immigration and abortion. Citing recent polling data, Stein does not believe Harris will defeat Trump in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and, possibly, Nevada. And even though he believes Michigan is important, there is one other swing state that the professor believes will be the key to winning the Oval Office.
“For me, the real only question is, ‘What happens in Pennsylvania?’” said Stein. “Should she lose Pennsylvania, I think she loses the presidency.”
If that is the case, Muslim voters could also have a significant impact in Pennsylvania. The most recent CAIR survey placed Harris in a favorable position with 37% of the vote compared to Trump’s 8% and Stein’s 25%.
Source: Anadolu Agency
