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USA

Rising Oil Prices Could Cost Republicans at the Polls

Published: November 4, 2026
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Nearly 40% Increase in U.S. Gasoline Prices Adds Pressure on Trump Ahead of Midterm Elections

Sadia J. Choudhury :
Surging oil and gasoline prices driven by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could create significant political challenges for Republicans in the November 3 midterm elections, as American consumers face mounting costs at the pump.

According to a report by Anadolu Agency, the average price of gasoline in the United States rose to approximately $4.17 per gallon as of November 1, up from $2.98 before the conflict began. That represents an increase of nearly 40%.

International benchmark Brent crude oil also experienced a sharp rise, climbing from $72.48 per barrel before the conflict to more than $126 at its peak. It closed the week ending October 30 at $113.43 per barrel, approximately 56.5% above its pre-war level.

The financial impact has extended beyond the United States. An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have added approximately $468 billion to global fuel costs, with U.S. consumers accounting for an estimated $160 billion.

Public concern over rising energy costs is also increasing. A Pew Research Center survey published October 30 found that 74% of Americans are highly concerned about gasoline and energy prices, compared with 60% in July and 43% in January.

Energy experts say the prolonged conflict and disruptions to global oil supplies could continue putting pressure on American households and the administration of President Donald Trump.

Francesco Sassi, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Oslo, told Anadolu Agency that rising energy costs could weaken Republican prospects in the midterm elections.

Meanwhile, oil markets economist Julien Mathonniere said the administration’s options for bringing down domestic fuel prices may be limited, particularly if supply disruptions continue. He emphasized that diplomacy could play a crucial role in easing market pressures.

Analysts warn that oil prices are likely to remain volatile as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and global energy supplies continues.

With voters increasingly concerned about the cost of living, rising fuel prices have become a significant economic and political issue as Americans head to the polls.

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Sadia J. Choudhury
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Shah J. Choudhury, Mubin Khan & Salman J. Choudhury
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