Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Year : 2, Issue : 8
Biden versus Trump: The lineup in the 2024 US election has long been a foregone conclusion, with a rematch between the two presidents appearing all but certain.
But what would happen if, for any number of reasons, one of the two contenders does not end up taking part in the November vote? Apart from immense political confusion, here is what would happen, according to the rules and experts:
What would cause President Joe Biden, an 81-year-old Democrat, or ex-president Donald Trump, the 77-year-old Republican, not to be on the ballot?
Age for one. Either candidate would enter office in January 2025 as the oldest US president ever.
Although neither has reported any serious health issues, statistics suggest that both face heightened risk of mortality or serious medical incident because of their advancing years.
Biden regularly asserts that he is the best qualified candidate, despite polls that indicate that his age is off-putting to voters.
To designate a party’s formal nominee, delegates from each state attend their party’s summer nominating convention to officially anoint a candidate based on primary voting. If Biden or Trump were to exit the race before the end of the primaries, final say would go to the delegates at the convention.
Since then, conventions have been well-oiled affairs, whose outcomes have been known in advance since they are determined by the primaries.
ut this year, the departure of a candidate could result in “a convention where the result may not be known ahead of time … the kind of no-holds-barred event that nominating conventions held between 1831 and 1968,” said Kamarck.
A strong but not automatic candidate to take Biden’s place would be his vice president, Kamala Harris, who is already part of his campaign.
Otherwise, any of a number of strong Democratic politicians — Governors Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania are mentioned — might be called on. But Trump has not yet announced his choice for VP.
And as Hans Noel, professor of government at Georgetown University, pointed out, Trump has belittled his party’s other heavy hitters throughout the primaries. Chief among these is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was relentlessly targeted by Trump before ending his candidacy.
Also at the top of the list is Nikki Haley, the lone serious candidate apart from Trump to remain in the Republican primaries — but who is hated by Trump’s loyal followers.
Source: AFP
