by Sara Pequeño
After months of scandal and low polling numbers, New York City Mayor Eric Adams ended his reelection campaign on Sept. 28, shaking up a mayoral race that’s already been full of surprises. Who knows why he chose to do so now, four weeks before early voting begins.
In a nine-minute video posted to X, Adams blamed the media and the city’s Campaign Finance Board for failing to grant him matching funds. Behind the scenes, however, it’s been clear that Adams was never going to win reelection after he was indicted on corruption charges in September 2024, which were later dropped by President Donald Trump’s administration.
Adams gave us no shortage of news in his rat-centric, gaffe-rich time in office and on the campaign trail. Political figures rarely give their constituents such a rich supply of bizarre stream-of-consciousness moments, and I’ll miss him for that. But the mayor dropping out isn’t just another plot twist in an already strange career – it’s a move that will rearrange a race that could decide the direction Democrats will take from here on out.
NYC Mayor Eric Adams had no shot at winning reelection
There was clearly no path forward for Adams, who was running as an independent and had been polling in the single digits for months. Now, the mayor’s race in the nation’s largest city is going to be a true test of how left-leaning voters choose to stand up to Trump – either choosing the status quo by electing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo or forging a new path for the Democrats by electing state lawmaker Zohran Mamdani.
There has been speculation about whether Adams would drop out of the race for weeks. Earlier in September, there were reports that Trump was considering Adams as the ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Despite this, the mayor made no announcements about his employment prospects when he suspended his campaign.
The reality seems to be that Adams was simply not going to be reelected. In a Suffolk University poll from Sept. 16-18, Mamdani was leading the pack with 45% support, followed by Cuomo at 25% and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa at 9%. Adams trailed behind with 8% support. Other polls from earlier in the election cycle showed similar outcomes.
What’s clear is that Adams seemed to drop out for his own ego, above all else. He failed to endorse Cuomo in his video announcement, although he did offer criticism of Mamdani without saying the democratic socialist’s name directly.
“Beware of those who claim the answer (is) to destroy the very system we built together over generations,” Adams said.
Despite this declaration from the mayor, Mamdani is the one who won the Democratic primary back in June through that very system and has held a comfortable lead in every poll since then.
Adams proved that NYC voters ‒ and Democrats ‒ need change
It’s possible that Cuomo, who is running as an independent, benefits from Adams’ decision to drop out. On the other hand, Adams dropped out so close to the election that his name is still going to appear on the ballot, which is sure to continue pulling votes away from people who are still in the race.
Adams’ departure and Sliwa’s failure to gain traction mean that this is going to be a battle between Mamdani and Cuomo ‒ and a bellwether for how the Democratic Party strategizes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
If voters choose Cuomo, it’ll likely lead the party to determine that the best solution for the left is to lean into institutional wisdom and moderate politics.
If they choose Mamdani, it’ll be a sign that progressive, moonshot platforms and appeals to the working class are what the party should rely on as Democrats prepare to take on the Republican establishment.
If polling and anecdotal enthusiasm are any indication, Mamdani is about to be the next mayor of New York City. What I’m wondering now is whether Democratic leaders, who are still hesitating to endorse their own nominee, will see the writing on the wall and adjust their platform or try to write off the victory as a one-off.
Adams was elected because he was a moderate – a former police officer who promised to keep the city safe but ultimately failed to be what New York City needed. His scandal-ridden career is proof that what we need is a change. Whether we get it is up to voters in November.
