New Siena Poll Shows Hochul at 54%, Blakeman at 40%; Mamdani’s Favorability Climbs to 69% in NYC
Sadia J. Choudhury:— New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has widened her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman to 14 percentage points, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll released Wednesday, Oct. 28. The survey also found rising favorability for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and continued voter concern over the cost of living.
Hochul leads Blakeman 54% to 40% among likely voters statewide, up from a 50%-to-41% advantage in September. With Election Day approaching on Nov. 3, the latest findings provide a snapshot of voter sentiment across New York State.
The poll surveyed 807 likely voters from Oct. 19 through Oct. 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The results reflect voter opinions at the time of the survey and do not guarantee the final election outcome.
HOCHUL HOLDS A STRONG LEAD IN NEW YORK CITY
Hochul’s support is particularly strong in New York City, where she leads Blakeman 67% to 23%, a 44-point difference.
The contest is much closer in other parts of the state. In the downstate suburbs, Hochul leads 49% to 47%. Upstate, she holds a narrow 49%-to-48% advantage.
The regional differences highlight the challenge of building statewide support across communities with different political priorities and concerns.
MAMDANI’S FAVORABILITY RISES TO 69%
Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s favorability rating among New York City voters has increased to 69%, up from 60% in September. The share of city voters who view him unfavorably fell to 28%, down from 31%.
Statewide, Mamdani’s favorability rating stands at 47%, while 43% view him unfavorably.
The findings show a notable difference between his standing in New York City and his broader statewide image.
HOCHUL’S PUBLIC IMAGE ALSO IMPROVES
For the first time in Siena polling during her five years as governor, a majority of likely voters view Hochul favorably.
Her favorability rating rose to 51%, compared with 48% in September. Her job approval rating also increased to 51%, up from 48%.
Blakeman’s favorability rating stands at 39%, while 40% view him unfavorably. The remaining voters either have no opinion or are unsure.
INDEPENDENT VOTERS REMAIN A KEY FACTOR
Siena found Hochul leading Blakeman 51% to 40% among independent voters. In September, Siena’s polling showed Blakeman leading among independents and other voters, 44% to 39%.
However, other surveys have produced different results. A Marist University poll released Oct. 28 found Blakeman leading among independent voters 49% to 39%. A Quinnipiac University poll released Oct. 21 also showed Blakeman ahead among independents, 51% to 44%.
The differing findings illustrate how polling results can vary depending on survey methods, timing and sample composition.
TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT DRAWS MIXED REACTIONS
President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman appears to be a concern for some voters, according to the Siena survey.
Asked how Trump’s endorsement affected Blakeman’s campaign, 48% said it was a negative, while 28% viewed it positively.
By comparison, 45% said Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul was positive for her campaign, while 30% viewed it negatively.
These figures measure voters’ perceptions of the endorsements’ impact on the campaigns, not whether the endorsements would necessarily change their own votes.
Trump’s statewide favorability rating stood at 36% favorable and 61% unfavorable.
Blakeman criticized the Siena and Marist polls, alleging that they were intended to discourage Republican turnout. His campaign said its internal polling showed a much closer race but did not release supporting figures.
AFFORDABILITY REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN
The cost of living continues to be a central issue for New Yorkers, including families struggling with housing, health care, transportation and everyday expenses.
When asked which candidate would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers, 30% chose Hochul, 27% selected Blakeman and 35% said neither candidate would accomplish that goal.
The findings suggest that many voters remain unconvinced that either candidate will adequately address their financial concerns.
DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENTS LEAD IN OTHER STATEWIDE RACES
The Siena survey also showed Democratic incumbents leading their Republican challengers in two other statewide contests.
Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%.
State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican challenger Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%.
On the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they would support for the U.S. House without naming specific candidates, Democrats lead Republicans 54% to 39%. In September, the Democratic advantage was 51% to 40%.
These statewide figures do not predict the outcome of any individual congressional district.
WHAT THE RESULTS MEAN FOR NEW YORK VOTERS
The poll highlights several issues likely to shape the final days of campaigning: the cost of living, regional differences in political preferences, candidates’ public images and the influence of prominent political endorsements.
For New York’s Bengali-American community, the governor’s race is particularly relevant because state policies affect housing, education, health care, transportation, public safety and other everyday concerns.
Voters can review candidates’ policy proposals and records before deciding how to cast their ballots.
New York’s general election is scheduled for Nov. 3. The Siena poll offers a picture of voter sentiment ahead of Election Day, but the final outcome will be determined by the votes cast.
