USA TODAY, Phillip M. Bailey: A few months ago, the prevailing thinking in Washington was that while Republicans could lose the House in the 2026 midterm elections, their Senate majority was secure.
To win control of the Senate, Democrats would need to upset four GOP incumbents, including in some states where President Donald Trump sailed to victory in 2024 by double digit margins.
But a strong candidate recruitment effort, coupled with significant fundraising and Trump’s declining popularity and his base’s infighting, have given them a credible chance of pulling it off.
Democratic Senate contenders are leading or statistically tied, according to recent polls, for seats held by Republicans in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio.
The increasingly sour national environment for Republicans and rising optimism for Democrats, experts say, comes down to one thing: Trump’s tanking poll numbers.
“Donald Trump is a millstone around the neck of Republican U.S. Senate candidate from Maine to Texas,” Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said in an interview.
Prediction market companies, such as Kalshi, show Senate control as a toss-up. At the start of the year, Kalshi gave Republicans a 67% chance at keeping the majority, but that has dwindled to 51% as of April 29.
But other political observers note that Republicans will be narrow favorites to retain the upper chamber given the near perfect election season Democrats must have.
Part of Democrats’ challenge is they must also hold seats of their own in the presidential toss-up states of Georgia and Michigan, plus a potential competitive race in New Hampshire where a popular incumbent retired.
“Democrats have to pitch a perfect game,” Jessica Taylor, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told USA TODAY.
“It’s not unheard of and the environment is certainly working in their favor, but at this point, they are still slight underdogs to capture the Senate,” she added. “But this time a year ago, they weren’t even really in the game.”
