Tuesday, February 4, 2025
Year : 2, Issue: 23/strong>
What differentiates today’s American-style corruption from past forms is its sheer scale and brazenness. The idea of stuffing $100 bills into brown paper envelopes sounds quaint compared to what we have now. American oligarchs can openly “contribute” hundreds of millions of dollars to a politician’s election campaign in exchange for favours. The $465 million no-strings-attached loan that Tesla received from President Barack Obama’s administration 15 years ago will look like a pittance compared to what is coming down the pike.
In any case, is progress still possible when the institutions responsible for the advancement and transmission of knowledge are under constant attack? The MAGA movement would like nothing more than to tear down the “elite” institutions where so much cutting-edge research occurs.
No country can truly prosper if large portions of the population suffer from deficiencies in education, health, and nutritious food. In America, around 16 percent of children grow up in poverty, overall performance in international educational assessments is mediocre, malnutrition and homelessness have become pervasive, and life expectancy is the lowest of any major advanced economy. The only remedy is “more” and “better” public spending. Yet Trump and his team of oligarchs are committed to cutting the budget as much as they can. Doing so would leave the United States even more dependent on foreign labour. But immigrants, even highly skilled ones, are anathema to Trump’s MAGA followers.
Although the US has long led the world in advancing basic science and technology, it is hard to see how this can continue under Trump. I see three possible scenarios. In the first, the US finally comes to terms with its deep-seated problems, rejects the MAGA movement, and reaffirms its commitment to Enlightenment values. In the second, the US and China continue down the road to oligarchic capitalism and authoritarian state capitalism, respectively, with the rest of the world lagging behind. Lastly, the US and China stay on their course, but Europe takes up the banner of progressive capitalism and social democracy.
Unfortunately, the second scenario is most likely, which means we must consider how long America’s growing deficiencies will remain manageable. China has massive advantages in developing technology and AI, owing to its huge market, vast supply of engineers, and commitment to long-term planning and comprehensive surveillance. Moreover, China’s diplomacy vis-à-vis the 60 percent of countries outside the West has been far more successful than America’s. But, of course, neither China nor a Trumpian America is committed to the values that have driven progress since the late eighteenth century.
Tragically, humanity is already grappling with existential challenges. Advances in technology have given us the means to destroy ourselves, and the best way to prevent that is through international law. In addition to the threats posed by climate change and pandemics, now we also have to worry about unregulated AI.
Some will counter that while there may be a pause in progress, past investments in basic science will continue to yield valuable returns. Besides, the optimists might add that every dictatorship eventually ends, and history moves on. A century ago, fascism engulfed the world. But that led to a wave of democratisation, with decolonisation and civil rights movements countering racial, ethnic, and gender discrimination.
The problem is that those successful movements went only so far, and time is not on our side. Climate change will not wait for us to get our act together. Will Americans enjoy continued progress in the form of shared prosperity, based on education, health, safety, community, and a clean environment? I doubt it. And will the end of progress in America have knock-on effects globally? Almost surely.
It is too soon to know what the full consequences of Trump’s second presidency will be. History does indeed move on; but it could leave progress behind.
This story has not been edited by The Generation staff
