Tuesday, October 30, 2024
Year : 2, Issue: 9
Despite ongoing claims of voter fraud and ballot mismanagement from former President Donald Trump and his allies, 86% of registered voters in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll say they personally are prepared to accept the outcome of the 2024 presidential election as legitimate, regardless of which candidate wins.
Two-thirds, however, believe Trump is not prepared to accept the outcome as legitimate. Fewer than half as many, 30%, say the same of Vice President Kamala Harris.
The public’s willingness to accept the outcome is essentially unchanged since August and up from 79% in October 2020. Seven in 10 registered voters also express confidence that votes will be counted accurately, little changed since the 2022 midterms.
At the same time, concerns about the electoral process resonate with a minority of voters — particularly Trump’s own supporters. Thirty-one percent overall say they are not so or not at all confident that votes will be counted accurately, rising to 54% of those who support Trump in the election. Just 6% of Harris supporters lack confidence in the count.
Nonetheless, even among Trump’s supporters, 81% say they are prepared to accept the election outcome as legitimate. That rises to 92% of Harris supporters in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos.
Notably, 69% of those who lack confidence in the vote count say they are prepared to accept the outcome anyway. It’s similar, 70%, just among Trump supporters who lack confidence in the count.
As reported Friday, 33% of registered voters — including 66% of Trump’s supporters — endorse Trump’s false claims that President Joe Biden did not legitimately win in 2020. These views are highly related to confidence in the electoral count: 90% of voters who say Biden legitimately won the election express confidence that votes will be counted accurately this election cycle, compared with 30% of voters who say Biden did not legitimately win.
Still, majorities say they’ll accept this year’s outcome regardless of their view on the 2020 race. Among those who do not think Biden legitimately won, 72% say they are prepared to accept this year’s outcome. It’s 93% among those who say Biden did legitimately win.
Trump has said he is willing to accept the outcome “if everything’s honest,” while simultaneously raising concerns about the electoral process. Harris’ campaign, for her part, has said she’ll preside over the election certification as vice president regardless of who wins.
Harris supporters are especially skeptical that Trump will accept the outcome of the election as legitimate; 94% believe he is not prepared to do so. By contrast, about six in 10 Trump supporters (59%) think he will accept the outcome; 36% think not.
Conversely, nearly all of Harris’ supporters, 97%, think she is prepared to accept the outcome of the election. Many fewer Trump supporters, 40%, say the same for her.
PARTISANSHIP
Willingness to accept the outcome of the election crosses political party affiliations, ranging from 91% of Democrats and 88% of independents to 81% of Republicans.
While willingness to accept election results is bipartisan, concerns about the electoral process are more divided. Ninety-three percent of Democrats are confident that the votes in the presidential election will be counted accurately, falling to 68% of independents and just 51% of Republicans.
Acceptance of 2020 election results also vary widely by partisanship. Sixty-five percent of Republicans say Biden did not legitimately win the election, compared with 29% of independents and just 3% of Democrats.
METHODOLOGY
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Oct. 18-22, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,808 adults, including 2,392 registered voters. Partisan divisions are 29%-29%-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents, among all respondents, and 32%-32%-29% among registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample and registered voters alike. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on ABC News’ survey methodology here.Source: ABC News
