Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Year : 2, Issue: 8
by Rex Huppke
This may come as a shock to some, but Donald Trump is not an economic genius. He’s a full-of-it fabulist who somehow branded himself a master of the economy despite leaving a long trail of bankruptcies and business failures in his wake.
Still, thanks to inflation and Trump’s incessant lie of having overseen the “greatest economy in the history of the world” while he was president, voters generally favored him on economic matters in the earlier months of the 2024 presidential race.
Not any more.
A poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released Monday found Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris effectively tied with Trump on the question of who would better handle the economy, in line with other polling. In the survey, she has a 5 percentage point lead over him on “cost of housing” and a 2 point lead on “jobs and unemployment.” Trump leads Harris by 2 points on “cost of groceries and gas.”
What changed?
HARRIS’ ‘OPPORTUNITY ECONOMY’ IS RESONATING WITH VOTERS
First, people had time to look over Harris’ plan for the economy, which includes expanding the child tax credit and the earned income tax credit, increasing tax deductions for small business, helping qualified first-time homebuyers with an average of $25,000 in assistance and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.
SURVEY: 70% OF ECONOMISTS SAY TRUMP’S PLAN WILL INCREASE INFLATION
Recently, the Financial Times and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business’ Clark Center for Global Markets surveyed several dozen economists from top universities. Asked which candidate’s plan would increase inflation, 70% of the economists said Trump’s, while only 3% said Harris’ would raise prices.
Goldman Sachs issued a September report that estimated job growth under Harris’ plan would be 30,000 jobs higher per month than if Trump won and had full Republican control of Congress.
On Oct. 14, the notoriously non-liberal Wall Street Journal reported on a quarterly survey the news organization had done: “Most economists think inflation, interest rates and deficits would be higher under the policies former President Donald Trump would pursue in a second administration than under those proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris.”
The Journal noted that the margin of economist surveyed who “say Trump’s policies are more likely to add to inflation, deficits and interest rates” has grown since July.
ALL TRUMP DOES IS RANT ABOUT TARIFFS AND MAKE ABSURD PROMISES
So the movement toward Harris as a sound overseer of the U.S. economy is not just based on vibes.
And it’s probably not helping Trump that, in rallies and interviews, he talks about his economic plan by saying his favorite word is “tariffs,” repeating the phrase “drill, baby, drill” and promising he will magically make everything perfect.
THE ECONOMY WHEN TRUMP WAS PRESIDENT WAS NOT ‘THE GREATEST’
He leans heavily on his incorrect assessment of the economy when he was president. As the AP reported in May, the economic numbers “expose a far more complicated reality during Trump’s time in the White House. His tax cuts never delivered the promised growth. His budget deficits surged and then stayed relatively high under (the Biden administration). His tariffs and trade deals never brought back all of the lost factory jobs.”
In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump added 6.7 million jobs as president – that’s excluding the huge number of jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic. President Joe Biden has added 15 million jobs during his term.
By the end of Trump’s presidency, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services had increased 36.3% from 2016. And the federal debt jumped from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.
The New York Times wrote of the September employment data: “By several measures, the job market is historically strong. People in their prime working years of 25 to 54 are employed at a rate previously seen only in the early 2000s. Average hourly earnings are strong – and climbing – even when adjusted for inflation. Women in their peak working ages are participating in the labor market at the highest levels on record.”
MAYBE VOTERS ARE STARTING TO NOTICE TRUMP’S ECONOMIC CON
Trump’s weird plan to enact outlandish tariffs will rattle the economy and pass costs along to consumers. Harris, on the other hand, has an economy with the wind at its back and a plan that’s resonating. She’s talking to voters and promoting actual ideas supported by a wide array of economists.
All Trump is doing, as always, is selling himself.
Maybe voters are starting to see him for what he is: a cheap fraud, and one hell of a risky investment.
Courtesy by USA TODAY
